Estimating the Impact of the Covid-19 Emergency on Tax Revenues in Guatemala: A Time Series Approach

Applications of time series models serve two different purposes: (1) as forecasting techniques, they are used to project the trajectory a variable interest during certain number future periods; (2) in analysis interventions, evaluate effect significant disturbance on process being studied. We use both types application study monthly tax revenues Guatemala. In Section 2 we data for 2010-2019 order compare alternative models: (a) Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) model, and (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model. 3 post-2019 estimate fiscal effects emergency measures implemented contain Covid-19 pandemic.